Why is a navigation estimate not enough?
A navigation app says “you will arrive at 18:00”, but a truck driver may not legally be allowed to drive until 18:00. If driving time has run out, the vehicle must stop for a rest and arrival slips to the next day. The time given to the customer is then wrong. A realistic ETA has to include not only the road but also the driver’s remaining legal driving entitlement.
The basic rules (EU 561/2006)
According to the European Commission’s summary, the main limits are:
- Daily driving time is 9 hours, extendable to 10 hours no more than twice a week.
- After 4.5 hours of driving a 45-minute break is required; it can also be split into 15 minutes followed by 30 minutes.
- Total weekly driving may not exceed 56 hours and total driving over two consecutive weeks may not exceed 90 hours.
The Regulation was amended by Regulation 2020/1054; for the detail of rest periods check the current consolidated text.
How does an ETA come out of these rules?
The calculation starts from the driver’s current state in the tachograph data: how long they have driven today, when the last break ended, how much is left this week. If the remaining distance is longer than the remaining entitlement, a rest is added to the calculation. The result is not a certain arrival but a likely one, because traffic, border and parking conditions can change. A good system therefore says “likely arrival” and does not hide the uncertainty.
Border and customs waiting
Waiting at a border is not counted as driving time but it moves the clock forward. Following the customs stop and the waiting time inside the trip makes this part of the forecast measurable. The better the border crossing information and the customs waiting measurement are kept, the more reliable the ETA becomes.
The role of AI
The rule calculation is deterministic and needs no AI. AI helps in learning patterns added on top of the rule calculation: how long the wait usually is at a given border crossing, the typical delay on a route. That learned value is placed beside the rule, not in place of it, and is not used before it is measured. For the wider picture see the guide to the AI-assisted TMS.
No scoring of people
Tachograph data should be used to plan the trip correctly, not to score the driver. A trustworthy system does not rank people; it only shows the legal position and the likely arrival.
Common mistakes
- Giving navigation time as a truck’s arrival.
- Forgetting the weekly and two-week driving limits: even if the daily calculation is right, time may have run out by the end of the week.
- Assuming border and customs waiting is zero.
- Presenting an ETA as a firm promise; saying “likely arrival” informs the customer more accurately.